Multivarijabilni modeli upravljanja u rudarstvu
Објеката
- Ментор
- Slobodan Vujić
- Члан комисије
- Mirko Vujošević|Vladimir Pavlović|Dušan Gagić|Igor Miljanović
- Креатор
- Marjan M. Hudej
- Датум издавања
- 2014-02-03
- Сажетак
- osetljivost i rizik. Više pobuda generiše ovakvu atribuciju. Prva je, multivarijabilnostambijentalnih uslova i funkcionalna i strukturna složenost rudarskih sistema (čovek -priroda (radna sredina) - mašina – okruženje); Druga se odnosi na ne postojanje opštenaučne saglasnosti oko ocene pogodnosti modela za podršku odlučivanju i upravljanje.Treća, ako bi saglasnost i postojala, nije sigurno da bi raspoloživi modeli, metode i taktike,dale ekvivalentne rezultate za iste rudničke uslove. Četvrta, sistemske nauke još uveknemaju opšte prihvaćen i u praksi primenljiv algoritam izbora najboljeg rešenja u slučajukolebanja multimodelskih poredaka alternativa. Prisutni su različiti pristupi upremoštavanju problema, oni se međusobno ne isključuju, ali ponuđena rešenja nemajuverifikaciju opšte i univerzalne primenljivosti.Ovo je uticalo da istraživanja u okviru disertacije, budu usmerena kritičkim stavom premapristupima zasnovanim na izboru najboljeg modela za analizu i donošenje upravljačkihodluka u rudničkim uslovima, drugačijim od uobičajenih industrijskih uslova.U disertaciji se umesto izbora najboljeg, najpogodnijeg, ili najprikladnijeg modela zapodršku odlučivanju, predlaže proceduralni prilaz. Ovakav prilaz podrazumevaistovremeno uključivanje u analizu više modela sa korektnom aproksimacijommultivarijabilnih rudničkih uslova. Pošto cilj nije izbor najboljeg modela već najboljegrešenja zadatog problema, prema postavljenom algoritmu postupak izbora najboljerangirane alternative ili najboljeg poretka alternativa, zavisi od kolebanja multimodelskihrangova. U slučaju ekvivalencije multimodelskih rangova, formirani poredak alternativaprihvata se kao definitivan, u suprotnom konačni poredak alternativa definiše seponderisanjem. Ako je cilj najbolja (prvorangirana) alternativa, analiza je opciona zavisnood stepena ekvivalencije multimodelskih rangova.Primenljivost i operativnu korisnost postavljenog pristupa, odnosno algoritma„proceduralnog postupka’’, eksperimentalno je testirana sa četiri modela na šest rudničkihproblema, različite strateške, taktičke ili operativne važnosti. Prosečna korelativnostmultimodelskih i ponderisanih poredaka u 50% testova je u opsegu visoke – jake veze(0,70-0,89), a u preostalih 50% u opsegu veoma visoke-veoma jake veze (0,90-0,99).Prosečna korelativnost ponderisanih i multimodelskih poredaka (0,813) veća je za 5,58%od prosečne korelativnosti (0,77) multimodelskih poredaka.Primenjeni pristup u istraživanjima i metrični elementi eksperimentalnih rezultata,obezbeđuju objektivnost sagledavanja i vrednovanja predloženog algoritma za podrškuodlučivanju u multivarijabilnim uslovima. Rezultujući ishodi ovih saznanja, potvrđujuvalidnost i praktičnu primenljivost postavljenog algoritma...
- The decision making and management in mining engineering are characterized by complexity,variability, ambiguity, sensibility and risk. There are several incentives for such attribution. Thefirst is multi-variability of environmental conditions and the functional and structuralcomplexity of mining production systems (Human – nature (working environment) – machine– narrower and wider environment). The second is related to the non-existing scientificconsensus regarding the assessment on the suitability of decision making and managementmodel. The third, even if such consensus existed, it is not sure that available models, methodsand tactics would give equivalent results for different mining conditions. The fourth is thatsystem sciences still do not have generally accepted and practically applicable algorithm for theselection of the best solution in case of instability of the multi-model order of alternatives.There are several approaches in overcoming this problem that are not mutually exclusive, butthe offered solutions do not have verification of the general and universal applicability.This was a determining point that the research within the scope of this dissertation should beforwarded by a critical standpoint toward approaches based on the selection of the best modelfor analysis and management decision making in mining conditions, with major differencesfrom conditions in other industries.In the dissertation, opposed to the selection of the best, the most adequate or the most suitablemodel for the support to decision making, the procedural approach is recommended. Thisapproach means to include simultaneous models in the analysis, with accurate approximationof the multi-variable conditions in mines. Since the goal is not to select the best model, butrather the best solution for the task in question, the procedure of selection of the best rankedalternative, or the best order of alternatives is accomplished depends on the instabilities ofmulti-model ranks according to the algorithm set. In case of multi-model ranks equivalence, theorder of alternatives is accepted as the final solution, otherwise the process of defining the finalorder of alternatives is achieved by pondering. If the goal is the best (the first ranked)alternative, the procedure is optional, depending on the multi-model ranks equivalence degree.The applicability and the operative usability of the approach set, i.e. the algorithm of the“procedural method” developed in this dissertation on four models, is tested with six miningengineering problems with different strategic, tactical or operational importance. The averagecorrelation of multi-model and pondered orders for 50% of tests lies within the class of high –strong connection (0.70-0.89), and for other 50% within the class of very high – very strongconnections (0.90-0.99). The average correlation of the pondered and multi-model orders(0.813) is larger by 5.58 % than the average correlation (0.77) of the multi-model orders.The applied approach in the research, and metric elements of the experimental tests results areensuring the objective assessment and valuation of the suggested algorithm for the support todecision making in multi-variable conditions. The outcome of these findings are confirming thevalidity and practical applicability of the suggested approach...
- Формат
- application/pdf
- Језик
- sr
- Издавач
- Универзитет у Београду, Рударско-геолошки факултет
- Права
- Autorstvo-Nekomercijalno 3.0 Srbija (CC BY-NC 3.0)
- Извор
- Универзитет у Београду
- Subject
- rudarstvo, odlučivanje, upravljanje, model,multivarijabilno, multiatributno, multikriterijumsko
- mining engineering, decision making, management, model,multi-variable, multi-attributive, multi-criteria
- Тип
- Докторска дисертација
Marjan M. Hudej. "Multivarijabilni modeli upravljanja u rudarstvu" in Универзитет у Београду, Универзитет у Београду, Рударско-геолошки факултет (2014-02-03)